Previous Commodity IQ sourcing guidance to focus on graphite and manganese supply due to China’s export graphite restrictions has come to fruition – with export sales down a massive 91% month-on-month in December and the surge in sales in November before the restrictions, according to the GACC. China accounts for nearly all refined natural graphite, and China produces over 95% of battery-grade manganese. Conversely, lithium and cobalt remain in oversupply, with excess inventories and downstream de-stocking prevailing into H2 as automotive and other OEMs continue to push out orders and downgrade 2024 demand forecasts. While surplus nickel – LME inventories have risen markedly since Q3 2023 – lackluster demand has driven pricing down by 47% year-to-date. The buyer’s market will last into H2 for NCA and NMC battery chemistries. Critical battery materials remain plentiful for now – however, lithium, for example, is likely headed for shortage in 2025.