The Commodity IQ Demand Index for resistors is projected to increase meaningfully into Q2 2025, recovering from its contraction from Q4 into Q1 2025. Pricing, inevitably, will trend upward with the increased demand. According to the latest Commodity IQ Price Index forecast, resistor prices will increase by 5% between the start and end of Q4. Another 8% increase is estimated to follow quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025.

After seasonally low demand, capacitors are set to see sourcing activities rise by upward of 10% sequentially in Q2 2025. Moreover, the Commodity IQ Design Index for capacitors will rebound by 6% in Q2 2025, reaching close to the index baseline, a value no seen since prior to 2019

According to Supplyframe Commodity IQ analysis, analog ICs (produced on more mature semiconductor process nodes and numbering about 100 per vehicle) are poised to become again supply-constrained for autos as soon as 2025 due to limited production capacity on mature nodes and the expected 20% or more increase in the number of these ICs in automobiles in just a few years. To whit, on increasing automotive power management requirements, power ICs will climb in Q4 after showing weakness and flattening in the previous quarter.

STMicroelectronics and ROHM recently entered into partnerships with Chinese EV manufacturers to supply and develop new SiC power MOSFETs. United Automotive Electronic Systems (a tier-one supplier of powertrain and body electronics offerings), Great Wall Motors, and Greely's EV brands are among ROHM's partners. STMicroelectronics and Xindong Semiconductor, the component division of Great Wall Motors, announced in March intentions to secure SiC product supply and further develop SiC power module technologies. According to the Commodity IQ Design Index, power MOSFET engineering design activities in the Asia-Pacific region are at two times the index baseline and forecast to grow by 20% between October and March 2025.

The year 2024 will go down as one of the most schismatic periods in the history of the electronics supply chain, with the combination of the ongoing AI boom and weak demand from most other sectors producing radically different conditions depending on the market.

Squeezed by the booming demand and limited labor availability, South Korea’s leading semiconductor makers are facing daunting challenges in ramping up the production of advanced memories.

It was recently announced that the U.S. Department of Commerce will propose a ban on using Chinese software and hardware in ICE and EV automobiles. Reportedly, the ban on Chinese software would take effect with 2027 model-year vehicles, and hardware prohibitions would be effective with 2029 and 2030 model-year vehicles. Recognizing that in the U.S. and Canada, an automotive model year is not the year of production (e.g., 2025 models have been offered for sale since June from some automakers) – if these reported model-year timeframes to become effective, it is likely that automotive OEMs and suppliers will be unable to meet at least some of the measure’s hardware restrictions due to the lengthy qualifications processes for replacement devices. Decoupling from China for automotive ICs will prove even more difficult as the nation has doubled down on trailing-edge semiconductor manufacturing, given that some 90% of automotive-grade semiconductors are manufactured with 40-nanometer and larger process nodes.

Process nodes of 40 nanometers and above are utilized to manufacture some of the most common components widely used in auto applications, including microcontrollers (up to 100 per vehicle), sensors (up to 120 per vehicle), and analog ICs. According to Supplyframe Commodity IQ analysis, analog ICs (produced on more mature semiconductor process nodes and numbering about 100 per vehicle) are poised to become again supply-constrained for autos due to limited production capacity on mature nodes as soon as 2025, and the expected 20% or more increase in the number of these ICs in automobiles in just a few years.

An extended walk-off by members of the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) employed at United States East and Gulf Coast ports would raise rates by thousands of dollars per container via carrier surcharges. Thousands of ILA workers seek hefty pay increases and a crane and port container truck automation ban. From Northern Europe to the U.S. East Coast, forty-foot container pricing is up 32% month-on-month per the Xeneta Shipping Index. Any impacts would add to additional service fees or price hikes from component makers and distributors, including Avnet, which added service fees for new shipments in June.

The high-purity quartz (HPQ) market was dealt a big blow by flooding in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. Spruce Pine, North Carolina, received over 24 inches of rain over three days, halting the two quartz mining operators, Belgium-based Sibelco NV and China's Quartz Corp. Spruce Pine mines produce the most and highest-purity quartz in the world, and there are limited deposits elsewhere. HPQ is vital for manufacturing semiconductors and semiconductor wafers, photovoltaics, and frequency control devices. Chip and passive component buyers should expect increased pricing in the coming months, particularly since there are no firm dates for mines to restart. Meanwhile, due to the storm's wrath on the U.S. Gulf Coast, soft demand and flat-to-declining pricing for ABS and PBT resins will not change materially.