Overmining and processing of lithium, particularly in China, has led to large stockpiles of critical battery material worldwide. The Commodity IQ LCO Global Price Index was less than a third of its 2018 baseline in August. However, pricing can be dynamic within variants of the same battery chemistry. For hydroxide-based LMO batteries, the index was 38% lower than in the same period just two years ago but has climbed 27% on average for August compared to March and is hovering about 15 points below the baseline; alternatively, the index of carbonate-based LMO units is relatively stable at 1.3 times the baseline.

MLCCs lead times are mostly in the 12-to-16-week range, yet, overall, the Q4 share of 0-to-12-week contracted lead times fell by nine percentage points compared to Q1, according to the Commodity IQ At-Volume Lead Time Trend. Utilization rates for most manufacturers remain between 60% and 80%, depending on location, with Taiwanese and Chinese operations at the lower end of the range. High-temperature and high-capacitance parts are constrained, and there is little to no ability to expedite orders. Automotive-grade and general-purpose large case size and high-voltage capacitors also present supply problems.

NAND Flash and DRAM memories have the same market volatility. And, as of late, the same pricing dynamics, with the overall memory Commodity IQ Price Index averaging three times the index baseline in Q3 and Q4, are forecast to remain in similar territory despite spot pricing declines. In 2019, both technologies experienced dramatic demand drops due to overcapacity, and last year; the technologies suffered sharp declines in tremendous excess capacities and bloated channel and customer inventories. One of the main differences that will impact pricing and other supply chain dimensions is that DRAM has comparatively highly concentrated manufacturing, signaling consolidation in the NAND market to the disadvantage of memory buyers.

For some 20 months, the analog IC market has seen negative growth, making it the lowest-performing semiconductor commodity. While higher semiconductor prices have propelled the active component market recovery, analog ICs like converters and amplifiers have fallen 2%, compounded annually through August on the Commodity IQ Price Index. Consequently, analog IC sub-commoditised in August dropped on average by 5%. Cautious about demand recovery, some analog manufacturers continue to wrestle with oversupply, presenting further negotiation opportunities for buyers as suppliers seek to maintain and expand market share while sustaining production levels.

August is shaping up to be a turning point in the trajectory of the global electronics industry. Industry reports bolster Supplyframe’s expectation that the month will deliver a marked shift in demand levels.

Lead times for sensors are showing tantalizing signs of bottoming out, with the share of at-volume contracted delivery lags in the minimum range of 0 to 12 weeks slipping by more than ten percentage points sequentially in Q3 to 36.6%. Although the early August earthquake in Japan caused no apparent disruptions to digital image sensor production, the event underscored the supply-chain risk posed by the country's heavy concentration of sensor manufacturing.

Despite calendar Q3 routinely being peak season for consumer electronics and other end-markets, DRAM and NAND spot prices have consistently decreased. Across all memory devices, still-lackluster consumer demand growth will present flexible pricing opportunities in the shorter term. The Commodity IQ Price Index indicates that while expanding above the baseline, pricing will increase slower into Q1 2025. NAND lags behind DRAM in most respects and is forecast to be undersupplied later in 2025, whereas DRAM will be meaningfully supply-challenged in Q1 of next year.