Despite a major surge in demand in January, growth in global electronics design activity decelerated compared to December, prompting Supplyframe to trim its Q1 outlook for global component development activity.
As some leading discrete IC manufacturers have and continue to announce end-of-life status for devices, second and third-tier established and new market entrants, particularly from China, should considered as alternative sources. Q1 sourcing actions, as measured by the Commodity IQ Demand Index, are forecast to accelerate by 13.2% for diodes and 14.5% for transistors.
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Non-automotive and smaller suppliers will face a greater challenge during the next few quarters if the major economies, especially China and Germany, fail to perform as expected. Prices are set to remain stable, yet flexible, for all optoelectronic product types in 2024. To maintain market share, manufacturers will remain hesitant to increase prices significantly, even if they are impacted by raw material costs. |
The Commodity IQ Price Index for converters, power ICs, and signal ICs contracted by 1.2%, 1.3%, and 0.5%, respectively in January. Excess stockpiles linger, with the Commodity IQ Inventory Index for analog power at more than two-and-a-half times the baseline level in November; prices have fallen as suppliers work to clear inventory and compete for market share.
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Nvidia's production of A100 and H100 GPUs continues to fall short of market demand. Pricing for H100 devices will undoubtedly increase alongside scarcity, yet A100 supply is slowly improving, and more favorable pricing is likely on the horizon. |
Following a steep drop throughout most of 2023, global semiconductor manufacturing equipment demand began a recovery in Q1 that will gain momentum in 2024, leading to rising prices and lengthening lead times this year.
After falling nearly 15% sequentially in Q4 2023, the Commodity IQ Price Index for diodes finished 2023 down by 6% and remained below the index baseline through January. Suppliers have become more flexible regarding price adjustments; while overall discrete prices are rising, vendors’ eagerness to accept lower costs generates opportunities for buyers to negotiate reductions.
After declining seasonality and subdued demand in Q4 2023, connector and terminal block pricing snapped back in January, rising by 1.9% and 6.7%, respectively, according to the Commodity IQ Price Index. And some price increases may come for low-margin and legacy products, like low-speed I/O connectors. Nevertheless, most connector suppliers (distributors and manufacturers) are open to pricing reviews for new or existing businesses, but pricing is largely stable in H2.
January results from the Electronic Components Industry Association (ECIA) confirm robust sales trends in the global electronics supply chain, as noted by the Commodity IQ Demand Index.
Over 57% lower year-on-year, the average value of the Commodity IQ Global LMO Battery Price Index for hydroxide-based cells is more than 30 points below the baseline. The Li-ion battery indexes will generally keep falling on stalled EV demand and speculative lithium buying by EV makers. However, procurement teams should acknowledge that price upswings like those of 2022 may again become prevalent as the Chinese economy continues to falter, high borrowing costs extend planned critical battery material capacity investments, and if consumer electronics demand ramps sharply.